Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)San Mamés Barria, Bilbao
The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Atletico Madrid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 193-point Elo edge (2,246 vs 2,053).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athletic Club have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Sevilla(home) | 1-3 | La Liga |
| Aug 21, 2026 | Zaragoza(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atalanta(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Burgos(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Athletic Club win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Atletico Madrid 3-2 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Dec 6, 2025 | Athletic Club 1-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-0 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2024 | Athletic Club 0-1 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Apr 27, 2024 | Atletico Madrid 3-1 Athletic Club | La Liga |
| Feb 29, 2024 | Athletic Club 3-0 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Madrid vs Athletic Club on Apr 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athletic Club score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club | 2.3 | 1.5 | 5 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athletic Club sit 17th in La Liga (0 points from 1 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 17 | Athletic Club | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Athletic Club the favourite at 45%, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Atletico Madrid.
- Where and when is Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Athletic Club vs Atletico Madrid is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at San Mamés Barria, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.