Valencia vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 4Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Valencia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Barcelona?
Barcelona starts as the favourite with a 282-point Elo edge (2,374 vs 2,092).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Barcelona have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Eldense(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | FC Basel 1893(away) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Udinese(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Europa Fc(home) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Valencia win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Barcelona win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 23, 2026 | Valencia 3-1 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Barcelona 6-0 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 6, 2025 | Valencia 0-5 Barcelona | Copa del Rey |
| Jan 26, 2025 | Barcelona 7-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Valencia 1-2 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Apr 29, 2024 | Barcelona 4-2 Valencia | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Valencia vs Barcelona on May 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Barcelona | 1.9 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 9th in La Liga (49 points from 38 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (94 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 38 | 31 | 1 | 6 | 95 | 36 | 94 |
| 9 | Valencia | 38 | 13 | 10 | 15 | 46 | 55 | 49 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab model makes Barcelona the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Valencia.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Barcelona played?
- Valencia vs Barcelona is played on September 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.