Athlone Town vs Kerry: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Athlone Town Stadium, Athlone
The Footlab model makes Athlone Town the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Kerry. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Athlone Town vs Kerry?
Kerry starts as the favourite with a 147-point Elo edge (1,430 vs 1,283).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Athlone Town have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Kerry have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Wexford(away) | 2-0 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Waterford(away) | 1-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Longford Town(home) | 2-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 2-3 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | UCD(home) | 0-0 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | UCD(home) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sligo Rovers(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cork City(away) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 4-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Athlone Town win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Kerry win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2026 | Kerry 1-0 Athlone Town | First Division |
| May 1, 2026 | Athlone Town 0-0 Kerry | First Division |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Kerry 0-1 Athlone Town | First Division |
| Sep 22, 2025 | Athlone Town 0-0 Kerry | First Division |
| Aug 1, 2025 | Kerry 4-0 Athlone Town | First Division |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Kerry 2-1 Athlone Town | FAI Cup |
Last archived meeting: Kerry vs Athlone Town on Jun 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Athlone Town score 1.1 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Kerry score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athlone Town | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Kerry | 1.6 | 1.4 | 4 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Athlone Town sit 7th in First Division (23 points from 20 matches) and Kerry sit 8th (22 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Kerry | 28 | 9 | 9 | 10 | 35 | 34 | 36 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 18 | 25 | 23 |
| 7 | Athlone Town | 28 | 9 | 7 | 12 | 28 | 33 | 34 |
| 8 | Kerry | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Athlone Town vs Kerry?
- The Footlab model makes Athlone Town the favourite at 40%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Kerry.
- Where and when is Athlone Town vs Kerry played?
- Athlone Town vs Kerry is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Athlone Town Stadium, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.