Cork City vs UCD: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Turner's Cross, Cork
The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for UCD. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cork City vs UCD?
Cork City starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,551 vs 1,408).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cork City have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; UCD have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Treaty United(away) | 2-2 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Kerry(home) | 3-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Athlone Town(home) | 3-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Finn Harps(away) | 3-0 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | UCD(away) | 2-5 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-1 | First Division |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Derry City(home) | 1-2 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wexford(home) | 4-1 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Treaty United(home) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Athlone Town(away) | 0-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Cork City win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 UCD win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 24, 2026 | UCD 5-2 Cork City | First Division |
| May 8, 2026 | Cork City 3-1 UCD | First Division |
| Mar 20, 2026 | UCD 0-1 Cork City | First Division |
| Sep 6, 2024 | UCD 0-1 Cork City | First Division |
| Jun 3, 2024 | Cork City 0-0 UCD | First Division |
| Apr 12, 2024 | UCD 0-0 Cork City | First Division |
How many goals should we expect?
Cork City score 2.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; UCD score 1.8 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cork City | 2.3 | 1.6 | 8 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
| UCD | 1.8 | 1.6 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cork City sit 1st in First Division (48 points from 20 matches) and UCD sit 2nd (33 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cork City | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | 40 | 11 | 48 |
| 1 | Cork City | 28 | 20 | 4 | 4 | 59 | 25 | 64 |
| 2 | UCD | 20 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 33 | 19 | 33 |
| 2 | UCD | 28 | 13 | 5 | 10 | 47 | 33 | 44 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cork City vs UCD?
- The Footlab model makes Cork City the favourite at 58%, against 22% for a draw and 20% for UCD.
- Where and when is Cork City vs UCD played?
- Cork City vs UCD is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Turner's Cross, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.