Finn Harps vs Longford Town: prediction and stats
First DivisionRegular Season - 32Kick-off on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Finn Park, Ballybofey
The Footlab model makes Longford Town the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Finn Harps. The most likely score is 0-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Longford Town starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,387 vs 1,189).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Finn Harps have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; Longford Town have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cobh Ramblers(home) | 1-3 | First Division |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town(away) | 0-5 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cork City(home) | 0-3 | First Division |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Kerry(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bray Wanderers(home) | 4-2 | First Division |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Bohemians(away) | 0-4 | FAI Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Athlone Town(away) | 1-2 | First Division |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Finn Harps(home) | 5-0 | First Division |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Treaty United(away) | 1-0 | First Division |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Finn Harps win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Longford Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 3, 2026 | Longford Town 5-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
| May 22, 2026 | Finn Harps 2-2 Longford Town | First Division |
| Mar 28, 2026 | Longford Town 0-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Sep 5, 2025 | Longford Town 1-1 Finn Harps | First Division |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Finn Harps 0-0 Longford Town | First Division |
| May 17, 2025 | Longford Town 0-0 Finn Harps | First Division |
Last archived meeting: Longford Town vs Finn Harps on Aug 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Finn Harps score 0.5 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Longford Town score 2.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | 0.5 | 2.5 | 2 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Longford Town | 2.4 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Finn Harps sit 9th in First Division (18 points from 20 matches) and Longford Town sit 6th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Longford Town | 28 | 11 | 7 | 10 | 39 | 36 | 40 |
| 6 | Longford Town | 20 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 20 | 24 | 25 |
| 9 | Finn Harps | 20 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 36 | 18 |
| 10 | Finn Harps | 28 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 22 | 56 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
- The Footlab model makes Longford Town the favourite at 65%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Finn Harps.
- Where and when is Finn Harps vs Longford Town played?
- Finn Harps vs Longford Town is played on September 18, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Finn Park, in the First Division.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.