Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta, Georgia
The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Sporting Kansas City. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
A very open match: only 92 Elo points separate Atlanta United FC (1,731) and Sporting Kansas City (1,639).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlanta United FC have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Sporting Kansas City have 3, 2 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(away) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | St. Louis City(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(away) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Los Angeles FC(away) | 0-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Minnesota United FC(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Atlanta United FC win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Sporting Kansas City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 1-3 Sporting Kansas City | Friendlies Clubs |
| Feb 27, 2022 | Atlanta United FC 3-1 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| May 6, 2019 | Sporting Kansas City 0-3 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| May 9, 2018 | Atlanta United FC 0-2 Sporting Kansas City | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 7, 2017 | Sporting Kansas City 1-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City on Feb 17, 2024
How many goals should we expect?
Atlanta United FC score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Sporting Kansas City score 0.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta United FC | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
| Sporting Kansas City | 0.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlanta United FC sit 15th in Major League Soccer (18 points from 20 matches) and Sporting Kansas City sit 15th (15 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 20 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 23 | 35 | 18 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 19 | 49 | 15 |
Who is out?
3 reported absence(s) for this match.
- A. FortuneAtlanta United FCOut(Hamstring Injury)
- M. AmaroAtlanta United FCOut(Inactive)
- William ReillyAtlanta United FCDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City?
- The Footlab model makes Atlanta United FC the favourite at 67%, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Sporting Kansas City.
- Where and when is Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City played?
- Atlanta United FC vs Sporting Kansas City is played on August 23, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Mercedes-Benz Stadium, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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