St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 21Kick-off on August 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)CITYPARK, St. Louis, Missouri
The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Houston Dynamo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 21, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate St. Louis City (1,832) and Houston Dynamo (1,883).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, St. Louis City have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Houston Dynamo have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | San Jose Earthquakes(away) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Salt Lake(home) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Colorado Rapids(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(away) | 3-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Vancouver Whitecaps(away) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Los Angeles Galaxy(home) | 1-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 8, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Sporting Kansas City(away) | 2-0 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Austin(home) | 3-0 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 St. Louis City win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Houston Dynamo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | St. Louis City 2-2 Houston Dynamo | US Open Cup |
| Aug 31, 2025 | St. Louis City 2-3 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Houston Dynamo 1-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 6, 2024 | St. Louis City 3-0 Houston Dynamo | Major League Soccer |
| May 5, 2024 | Houston Dynamo 0-0 St. Louis City | Major League Soccer |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Houston Dynamo 1-0 St. Louis City | CONCACAF Champions League |
Last archived meeting: St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
St. Louis City score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Houston Dynamo score 1.7 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City | 1.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Houston Dynamo | 1.7 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
St. Louis City sit 6th in Major League Soccer (30 points from 20 matches) and Houston Dynamo sit 1st (38 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 20 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 29 | 24 | 38 |
| 6 | St. Louis City | 20 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 28 | 26 | 30 |
Who is out?
7 reported absence(s) for this match.
- Arthur SousaHouston DynamoDoubtful(Injury)
- Felipe AndradeHouston DynamoDoubtful(Lower-Body Injury)
- J. MaurerHouston DynamoOut(Concussion)
- Vinicius SilvaHouston DynamoDoubtful(Injury)
- Brendan McSorleySt. Louis CityDoubtful(Ankle Injury)
- Célio PompeuSt. Louis CityOut(Knee Injury)
- K. HiebertSt. Louis CityOut(Hip Injury)
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo?
- The Footlab model makes St. Louis City the favourite at 46%, against 26% for a draw and 28% for Houston Dynamo.
- Where and when is St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo played?
- St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo is played on August 23, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC) at CITYPARK, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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