Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco: prediction and stats
Serie D - Girone FGroup F - 33Kick-off on April 25, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, Ascoli Piceno
The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Notaresco. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco?
A very open match: only 18 Elo points separate Atletico Ascoli (1,756) and Notaresco (1,739).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atletico Ascoli have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Notaresco have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Pineto(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Teramo(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Sammaurese(away) | 0-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Fossombrone(home) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Teramo(away) | 1-3 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 10, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 3-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| May 3, 2026 | Ancona(away) | 1-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Victor San Marino(home) | 1-2 | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Termoli Calcio(away) | 2-1 | Serie D - Girone F |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atletico Ascoli win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Notaresco win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2026 | Atletico Ascoli 0-0 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Notaresco 1-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Atletico Ascoli 1-2 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Notaresco 1-2 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Notaresco 0-1 Atletico Ascoli | Serie D - Girone F |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Atletico Ascoli 1-1 Notaresco | Serie D - Girone F |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco on Jan 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Ascoli score 1.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Notaresco score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Ascoli | 1.5 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Notaresco | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Ascoli sit 4th in Serie D - Girone F (55 points from 34 matches) and Notaresco sit 5th (51 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Atletico Ascoli | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 55 | 34 | 55 |
| 5 | Notaresco | 34 | 13 | 12 | 9 | 43 | 31 | 51 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Ascoli the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Notaresco.
- Where and when is Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco played?
- Atletico Ascoli vs Notaresco is played on April 25, 2027 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Don Mauro Bartolini, in the Serie D - Girone F.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.