Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara played?

Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 3Kick-off on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio La Eragudina, Astorga

Atlético Astorga

Guadalajara

The Footlab model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Guadalajara. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara?

A very open match: only 7 Elo points separate Atlético Astorga (1,889) and Guadalajara (1,882).

Atlético Astorga win46 %

Draw27 %

Guadalajara win27 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Astorga have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Guadalajara have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Atlético Astorga
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	La Bañeza(away)	0-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Deportivo La Coruña II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
May 3, 2026	UD Ourense(away)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1
Apr 26, 2026	Sarriana(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

Guadalajara
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 18, 2026	Marchamalo(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Athletic Club II(away)	1-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 9, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	2-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 2, 2026	Real Avilés(away)	2-2	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

Atlético Astorga score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Guadalajara score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Atlético Astorga	1.3	1.3	5	7/15	7/15
Guadalajara	1.5	1.3	4	9/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

2024-25 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Guadalajara	34	22	8	4	60	22	74

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara?: The Footlab model makes Atlético Astorga the favourite at 46%, against 27% for a draw and 27% for Guadalajara.
Where and when is Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara played?: Atlético Astorga vs Guadalajara is played on September 20, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio La Eragudina, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 5.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.