Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon: prediction and stats
Liga NacionalApertura - 11Kick-off on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Atletico Independiente. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,619 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
CD Marathon starts as the favourite with a 207-point Elo edge (1,795 vs 1,588).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Atletico Independiente
Not enough data to predict the Atletico Independiente lineup.
CD Marathon
4-3-3- 11N. Messiniti
- 29C. Perez
- 74L. Carcamo
- 8T. Sorto
- 72Y. Moreno
- 9B. Farioli
- 22C. Argueta
- 2H. Figueroa
- 4J. Rivera
- 19J. Aguilera
- 1J. Rougier
Computed on October 18, 2026 at 11:07 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 10 matches in all competitions, Atletico Independiente have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; CD Marathon have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(home) | 0-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Olancho(away) | 1-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 20, 2026 | CD Olimpia(away) | 0-4 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Juticalpa(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 5, 2026 | CD Motagua(home) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | Olancho(home) | 2-1 | Liga Nacional |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Lobos Upnfm(away) | 0-0 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 21, 2026 | Juticalpa(away) | 2-3 | Liga Nacional |
| Sep 18, 2026 | LD Alajuelense(away) | 1-3 | CONCACAF Central American Cup |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CD Olimpia(home) | 1-0 | Liga Nacional |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Atletico Independiente wins, 0 draws, 1 CD Marathon win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 4, 2026 | CD Marathon 1-0 Atletico Independiente | Liga Nacional |
Last archived meeting: CD Marathon vs Atletico Independiente on Aug 4, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atletico Independiente score 0.8 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 10; CD Marathon score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atletico Independiente | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1 | 6/10 | 5/10 |
| CD Marathon | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 10 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atletico Independiente sit 9th in Liga Nacional (10 points from 10 matches) and CD Marathon sit 2nd (21 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | CD Marathon | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 21 |
| 9 | Atletico Independiente | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 10 |
A question about Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon?
- The Footlab AI model makes CD Marathon the favourite at 71%, against 18% for a draw and 11% for Atletico Independiente.
- Where and when is Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon played?
- Atletico Independiente vs CD Marathon is played on October 25, 2026 at 12:30 AM (UTC), in the Liga Nacional.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.