Mirassol vs Atletico-MG: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo
The Footlab model makes Mirassol the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Atletico-MG. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
A very open match: only 62 Elo points separate Mirassol (1,921) and Atletico-MG (1,983).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mirassol have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Atletico-MG have 8, 5 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 1-5 | Serie A |
| Aug 13, 2026 | LDU de Quito(home) | 1-1 | CONMEBOL Libertadores |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cruzeiro(away) | 1-3 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Internacional(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | RB Bragantino(home) | 2-2 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Gremio(home) | 3-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 12, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Remo(away) | 2-2 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Mirassol win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Atletico-MG win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG 3-1 Mirassol | Serie A |
| Sep 28, 2025 | Atletico-MG 1-0 Mirassol | Serie A |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Mirassol 2-2 Atletico-MG | Serie A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico-MG vs Mirassol on May 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Mirassol score 0.9 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico-MG score 1.3 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirassol | 0.9 | 1.4 | 2 | 10/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Mirassol sit 17th in Serie A (24 points from 23 matches) and Atletico-MG sit 9th (33 points from 23 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Atletico-MG | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 30 | 27 | 33 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | 26 | 36 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Mirassol vs Atletico-MG?
- The Footlab model makes Mirassol the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Atletico-MG.
- Where and when is Mirassol vs Atletico-MG played?
- Mirassol vs Atletico-MG is played on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.