Gremio vs Bahia: prediction and stats
Serie ARegular Season - 35Kick-off on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre, Rio Grande do Sul
The Footlab model makes Bahia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gremio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gremio vs Bahia?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Gremio (1,918) and Bahia (1,976).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gremio have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Bahia have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | RB Bragantino(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Atletico-MG(away) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 2-1 | Serie A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Mirassol(away) | 1-1 | Copa Do Brasil |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria(away) | 2-0 | Serie A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(away) | 3-3 | Serie A |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(home) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Fluminense(away) | 0-0 | Serie A |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Corinthians(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Gremio win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Bahia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Bahia 1-1 Gremio | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Bahia 4-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| May 25, 2025 | Gremio 1-0 Bahia | Serie A |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Gremio 0-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Bahia 1-0 Gremio | Serie A |
| Nov 4, 2023 | Gremio 1-0 Bahia | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Gremio score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gremio | 1.3 | 1.4 | 3 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.4 | 4 | 11/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gremio sit 15th in Serie A (25 points from 23 matches) and Bahia sit 6th (37 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | 34 | 28 | 37 |
| 15 | Gremio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | 24 | 31 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gremio vs Bahia?
- The Footlab model makes Bahia the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Gremio.
- Where and when is Gremio vs Bahia played?
- Gremio vs Bahia is played on November 18, 2026 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena do Grêmio, in the Serie A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.