Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal San Benito, Porcuna
The Footlab model makes Atlético Porcuna the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Arenas Armilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla?
A very open match: only 70 Elo points separate Atlético Porcuna (1,716) and Arenas Armilla (1,787).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Atlético Porcuna have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Arenas Armilla have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | El Palo(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | UD San Pedro(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Atlético Porcuna win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Arenas Armilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 1, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 0-2 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 21, 2025 | Atlético Porcuna 0-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Atlético Porcuna 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 24, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-2 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Atlético Porcuna 0-2 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Dec 17, 2022 | Arenas Armilla 3-1 Atlético Porcuna | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Armilla vs Atlético Porcuna on Feb 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Atlético Porcuna score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlético Porcuna | 1.2 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Atlético Porcuna sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (46 points from 34 matches) and Arenas Armilla sit 4th (54 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
| 9 | Atlético Porcuna | 34 | 14 | 4 | 16 | 41 | 39 | 46 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla?
- The Footlab model makes Atlético Porcuna the favourite at 40%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Arenas Armilla.
- Where and when is Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla played?
- Atlético Porcuna vs Arenas Armilla is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal San Benito, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.