UD San Pedro vs Mancha Real: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 9Kick-off on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal, San Pedro de Alcántara
The Footlab model makes UD San Pedro the favourite at 54%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Mancha Real. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win UD San Pedro vs Mancha Real?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate UD San Pedro (1,738) and Mancha Real (1,691).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, UD San Pedro have 5 wins, 8 draws and 2 defeats; Mancha Real have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Churriana Vega(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Torreperogil(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Torre del Mar(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Alhaurino(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Granada II(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Huétor Vega(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Huétor Tájar(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 UD San Pedro win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Mancha Real win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 18, 2026 | Mancha Real 1-1 UD San Pedro | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 7, 2025 | UD San Pedro 1-2 Mancha Real | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Mancha Real vs UD San Pedro on Jan 18, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
UD San Pedro score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Mancha Real score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 34% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UD San Pedro | 1.1 | 0.9 | 6 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
| Mancha Real | 1.0 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
UD San Pedro sit 8th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (49 points from 34 matches) and Mancha Real sit 14th (37 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | UD San Pedro | 34 | 13 | 10 | 11 | 39 | 37 | 49 |
| 14 | Mancha Real | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 30 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for UD San Pedro vs Mancha Real?
- The Footlab model makes UD San Pedro the favourite at 54%, against 29% for a draw and 17% for Mancha Real.
- Where and when is UD San Pedro vs Mancha Real played?
- UD San Pedro vs Mancha Real is played on November 1, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 34% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.