Aubagne vs Gobelins: prediction and stats
Ligue 3Regular Season - 21Kick-off on February 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, Aubagne
The Footlab model makes Aubagne the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Gobelins. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Aubagne vs Gobelins?
A very open match: only 20 Elo points separate Aubagne (1,705) and Gobelins (1,725).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Aubagne have 2 wins, 3 draws and 10 defeats; Gobelins have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Caen(away) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Bastia(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Thionville Lusitanos(home) | 0-3 | Ligue 3 |
| May 15, 2026 | Caen(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 3 |
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins(away) | 1-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | Valenciennes(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Villefranche(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 3 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Quevilly(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 3 |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Caen(away) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 11, 2026 | Amiens(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Aubagne win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Gobelins win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Gobelins 1-1 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
| Jan 16, 2026 | Aubagne 1-1 Gobelins | Ligue 3 |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Aubagne 1-1 Gobelins | Ligue 3 |
| Nov 22, 2024 | Gobelins 1-0 Aubagne | Ligue 3 |
How many goals should we expect?
Aubagne score 0.8 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Gobelins score 1.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aubagne | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Gobelins | 1.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Aubagne sit 18th in Ligue 3 (0 points from 3 matches) and Gobelins sit 8th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gobelins | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Aubagne vs Gobelins?
- The Footlab model makes Aubagne the favourite at 36%, against 30% for a draw and 34% for Gobelins.
- Where and when is Aubagne vs Gobelins played?
- Aubagne vs Gobelins is played on February 20, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stade de Lattre de Tassigny, in the Ligue 3.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.