Auckland vs Adelaide United: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on January 1, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Go Media Stadium, Auckland
The Footlab model makes Auckland the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Adelaide United. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auckland vs Adelaide United?
Auckland starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,925 vs 1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auckland have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Adelaide United have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 26, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Sydney(home) | 1-0 | A-League |
| May 15, 2026 | Adelaide United(away) | 3-0 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| May 2, 2026 | Melbourne City(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Công An Nhân Dân(home) | 0-2 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Jul 30, 2026 | South Melbourne(away) | 1-2 | Australia Cup |
| May 15, 2026 | Auckland(home) | 0-3 | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 2-1 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Auckland win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Adelaide United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | Adelaide United 0-3 Auckland | A-League |
| May 9, 2026 | Auckland 1-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Apr 3, 2026 | Adelaide United 1-1 Auckland | A-League |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Auckland 2-1 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Mar 1, 2025 | Auckland 4-4 Adelaide United | A-League |
| Jan 22, 2025 | Adelaide United 2-2 Auckland | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Adelaide United vs Auckland on May 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auckland score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Adelaide United score 1.6 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auckland | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Adelaide United | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 12/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auckland sit 3rd in A-League (42 points from 26 matches) and Adelaide United sit 2nd (43 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Adelaide United | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 46 | 36 | 43 |
| 3 | Auckland | 26 | 11 | 9 | 6 | 42 | 29 | 42 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auckland vs Adelaide United?
- The Footlab model makes Auckland the favourite at 49%, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Adelaide United.
- Where and when is Auckland vs Adelaide United played?
- Auckland vs Adelaide United is played on January 1, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Go Media Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.