Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on December 31, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC)Industree Group Stadium, Gosford
The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Central Coast Mariners. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?
Melbourne City starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,882 vs 1,759).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Central Coast Mariners have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Melbourne City have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 22, 2026 | Sydney United(away) | 1-1 | Australia Cup |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Newcastle Jets(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-0 | A-League |
| Apr 10, 2026 | Brisbane Roar(home) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 1-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 2026 | Lions(away) | 0-2 | Australia Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Palermo(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Weston Bears(away) | 3-0 | Australia Cup |
| May 2, 2026 | Auckland(away) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Adelaide United(home) | 1-2 | A-League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Central Coast Mariners win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Melbourne City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 7, 2026 | Melbourne City 2-1 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Central Coast Mariners 0-0 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Melbourne City 1-0 Central Coast Mariners | A-League |
| Dec 31, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 1-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Apr 2, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Central Coast Mariners 2-1 Melbourne City | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Melbourne City vs Central Coast Mariners on Apr 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Central Coast Mariners score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Melbourne City score 1.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Coast Mariners | 1.4 | 1.5 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Melbourne City | 1.3 | 1.2 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Central Coast Mariners sit 9th in A-League (32 points from 26 matches) and Melbourne City sit 6th (38 points from 26 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Melbourne City | 26 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 38 |
| 9 | Central Coast Mariners | 26 | 8 | 8 | 10 | 35 | 42 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City?
- The Footlab model makes Melbourne City the favourite at 53%, against 24% for a draw and 23% for Central Coast Mariners.
- Where and when is Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City played?
- Central Coast Mariners vs Melbourne City is played on December 31, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC) at Industree Group Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.