Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets: prediction and stats
A-LeagueRegular Season - 11Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC)Sky Stadium, Wellington
The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Newcastle Jets. The most likely score is 1-1. If Wellington Phoenix wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,744 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 27, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets?
On Elo ratings, Wellington Phoenix has 1,730 points and Newcastle Jets 1,864.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Wellington Phoenix
4-4-2- 99C. Piper
- 9R. Durán
- 25K. Nagasawa
- 8M. Anderson
- 7B. Duke
- 14A. Rufer
- 28B. Tuiloma
- 18L. Kelly-Heald
- 27M. Sheridan
- 23J. McGarry
- 13H. Gray
Newcastle Jets
4-1-4-1- 9N. Vergos
- 14M. Burgess
- 43X. Bertoncello
- 6Z. Schreiber
- 27J. Recchia
- 11J. Lolley
- 23D. Wilmering
- 22J. Bertolissio
- 39T. Aquilina
- 5J. Shaughnessy
- 1J. Delianov
Computed on October 27, 2026 at 03:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Wellington Phoenix have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Newcastle Jets have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(home) | 2-0 | A-League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Melbourne Victory(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Macarthur(away) | 0-4 | A-League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Western Sydney Wanderers(home) | 2-1 | A-League |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Melbourne City(away) | 0-2 | A-League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 27, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 2-5 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Macarthur(home) | 1-1 | A-League |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Central Coast Mariners(away) | 2-2 | A-League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-3 | AFC Champions League Elite |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Kashima(away) | 1-7 | AFC Champions League Elite |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Wellington Phoenix wins, 1 draw, 3 Newcastle Jets wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 23, 2026 | Newcastle Jets 4-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 14, 2025 | Wellington Phoenix 1-3 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Apr 6, 2025 | Newcastle Jets 1-2 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
| Dec 28, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 2-1 Newcastle Jets | A-League |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Wellington Phoenix 0-1 Newcastle Jets | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 19, 2024 | Newcastle Jets 1-1 Wellington Phoenix | A-League |
Last archived meeting: Newcastle Jets vs Wellington Phoenix on Jan 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Wellington Phoenix score 1.3 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle Jets score 1.7 and concede 2.2. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington Phoenix | 1.3 | 1.8 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Newcastle Jets | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1 | 14/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Wellington Phoenix sit 1st in A-League (6 points from 2 matches) and Newcastle Jets sit 7th (2 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Phoenix | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Newcastle Jets | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 2 |
A question about Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets?
- The Footlab AI model makes Wellington Phoenix the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 32% for Newcastle Jets.
- Where and when is Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets played?
- Wellington Phoenix vs Newcastle Jets is played on January 2, 2027 at 04:00 AM (UTC) at Sky Stadium, in the A-League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.