Auda vs Grobiņa: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Mežaparks Sports Village, Riga
The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Grobiņa. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auda vs Grobiņa?
Auda starts as the favourite with a 279-point Elo edge (1,774 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auda have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Grobiņa have 2, 3 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 3-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-2 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(away) | 0-4 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 1-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Dinamo Tirana(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FK Liepaja(away) | 1-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda(away) | 2-3 | Cup |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 1-6 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Riga(away) | 0-4 | Virsliga |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 2-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Auda win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Grobiņa win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Auda 3-2 Grobiņa | Cup |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Grobiņa 0-0 Auda | Virsliga |
| May 7, 2026 | Auda 7-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Grobiņa 0-2 Auda | Virsliga |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Grobiņa 2-2 Auda | Virsliga |
| Aug 24, 2025 | Auda 1-0 Grobiņa | Virsliga |
How many goals should we expect?
Auda score 1.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Grobiņa score 0.8 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auda | 1.5 | 1.0 | 7 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Grobiņa | 0.8 | 2.1 | 2 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auda sit 3rd in Virsliga (49 points from 25 matches) and Grobiņa sit 8th (21 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Auda | 25 | 15 | 4 | 6 | 42 | 26 | 49 |
| 8 | Grobiņa | 27 | 4 | 9 | 14 | 19 | 50 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auda vs Grobiņa?
- The Footlab model makes Auda the favourite at 77%, against 16% for a draw and 7% for Grobiņa.
- Where and when is Auda vs Grobiņa played?
- Auda vs Grobiņa is played on September 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Mežaparks Sports Village, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.