Riga vs BFC Daugavpils: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for BFC Daugavpils. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?
Riga is a heavy favourite: 2,028 Elo points against 1,645 — a 384-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Riga have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeats; BFC Daugavpils have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Rīgas FS(away) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 20, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Metta / LU(home) | 4-1 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Gyori ETO FC(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 4-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 3-1 | Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tukums(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | FS Jelgava(home) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Auda(away) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Riga win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 BFC Daugavpils win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 0-0 Riga | Virsliga |
| May 8, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils 1-3 Riga | Virsliga |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Riga 4-2 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| Sep 29, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2025 | Riga 1-1 BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga |
| May 14, 2025 | BFC Daugavpils 0-1 Riga | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: BFC Daugavpils vs Riga on Jun 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Riga score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; BFC Daugavpils score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riga | 2.4 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| BFC Daugavpils | 1.4 | 0.7 | 6 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Riga sit 2nd in Virsliga (65 points from 26 matches) and BFC Daugavpils sit 4th (37 points from 27 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Riga | 26 | 20 | 5 | 1 | 79 | 24 | 65 |
| 4 | BFC Daugavpils | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | 33 | 31 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?
- The Footlab model makes Riga the favourite at 81%, against 13% for a draw and 6% for BFC Daugavpils.
- Where and when is Riga vs BFC Daugavpils played?
- Riga vs BFC Daugavpils is played on September 6, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.