FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, Jelgava
The Footlab model makes FS Jelgava the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Super Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
A very open match: only 5 Elo points separate FS Jelgava (1,558) and Super Nova (1,554).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, FS Jelgava have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Super Nova have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ogre United(away) | 3-2 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Auda(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 0-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Virsliga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | BFC Daugavpils(home) | 0-0 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Rīgas FS(home) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FK Liepaja(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
| Jul 6, 2026 | Ogre United(home) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 FS Jelgava win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Super Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Super Nova 1-5 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| May 6, 2026 | FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| Mar 15, 2026 | Super Nova 1-1 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Super Nova 1-1 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
| Jul 20, 2025 | FS Jelgava 1-0 Super Nova | Virsliga |
| May 21, 2025 | Super Nova 0-0 FS Jelgava | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: Super Nova vs FS Jelgava on Jun 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
FS Jelgava score 1.3 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Super Nova score 1.0 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FS Jelgava | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Super Nova | 1.0 | 1.5 | 4 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
FS Jelgava sit 7th in Virsliga (28 points from 27 matches) and Super Nova sit 6th (28 points from 25 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Super Nova | 25 | 8 | 4 | 13 | 26 | 37 | 28 |
| 7 | FS Jelgava | 27 | 7 | 7 | 13 | 28 | 46 | 28 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for FS Jelgava vs Super Nova?
- The Footlab model makes FS Jelgava the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Super Nova.
- Where and when is FS Jelgava vs Super Nova played?
- FS Jelgava vs Super Nova is played on September 5, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Zemgales Olimpiskā centra, in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.