Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja: prediction and stats
VirsligaRegular Season - 29Kick-off on September 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), Rīga (Riga)
The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for FK Liepaja. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja?
Rīgas FS starts as the favourite with a 279-point Elo edge (1,955 vs 1,676).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rīgas FS have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; FK Liepaja have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Riga(home) | 3-3 | Virsliga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 1-0 | Cup |
| Aug 13, 2026 | FK Jablonec(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 6-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 6, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Grobiņa(home) | 3-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Super Nova(away) | 2-1 | Virsliga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Tukums(away) | 1-2 | Virsliga |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Austria Vienna(away) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | FS Jelgava(away) | 2-0 | Virsliga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Rīgas FS win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 FK Liepaja win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | FK Liepaja 0-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| May 8, 2026 | Rīgas FS 5-0 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| Mar 13, 2026 | FK Liepaja 0-1 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Sep 28, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-2 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
| Jul 4, 2025 | Rīgas FS 2-1 FK Liepaja | Virsliga |
| May 14, 2025 | FK Liepaja 2-1 Rīgas FS | Virsliga |
Last archived meeting: FK Liepaja vs Rīgas FS on Jun 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Rīgas FS score 2.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; FK Liepaja score 1.5 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rīgas FS | 2.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| FK Liepaja | 1.5 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Rīgas FS sit 1st in Virsliga (66 points from 26 matches) and FK Liepaja sit 5th (37 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rīgas FS | 26 | 21 | 3 | 2 | 65 | 20 | 66 |
| 5 | FK Liepaja | 26 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 36 | 38 | 37 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja?
- The Footlab model makes Rīgas FS the favourite at 82%, against 12% for a draw and 6% for FK Liepaja.
- Where and when is Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja played?
- Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja is played on September 7, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at LNK Sporta Parks (dabīgais), in the Virsliga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.