Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande: prediction and stats
Carioca - 2Regular Season - 6Kick-off on October 10, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, Nilópolis, Rio de Janeiro
The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Nova Cidade. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande?
A very open match: only 78 Elo points separate Nova Cidade (1,566) and Campo Grande (1,644).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Nova Cidade have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Campo Grande have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Friburguense(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Campo Grande(home) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Duque de Caxias(away) | 2-2 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Bonsucesso(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Artsul(home) | 0-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2025 | Petrópolis(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nova Cidade(away) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Nov 1, 2025 | Carapebus(home) | 0-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Niteroiense(home) | 1-1 | Carioca - 2 |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Paduano(away) | 1-0 | Carioca - 2 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Nova Cidade win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Campo Grande win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2025 | Nova Cidade 1-0 Campo Grande | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 18, 2022 | Campo Grande 1-3 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
| Sep 25, 2021 | Campo Grande 2-0 Nova Cidade | Carioca - 2 |
Last archived meeting: Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande on Nov 5, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Nova Cidade score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Campo Grande score 0.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 30% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nova Cidade | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Campo Grande | 0.7 | 0.9 | 4 | 6/15 | 1/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Nova Cidade sit 7th in Carioca - 2 (16 points from 11 matches) and Campo Grande sit 8th (15 points from 11 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Nova Cidade | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 9 | 16 |
| 8 | Campo Grande | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande?
- The Footlab model makes Campo Grande the favourite at 36%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Nova Cidade.
- Where and when is Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande played?
- Nova Cidade vs Campo Grande is played on October 10, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Joaquim de Almeida Flores, in the Carioca - 2.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 30% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.