Auxerre vs Estac Troyes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 16Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab AI model makes Auxerre the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Estac Troyes. The most likely score is 1-1. If Auxerre wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Auxerre (1,975) and Estac Troyes (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Auxerre
3-4-2-1- 9C. Archer
- 10D. Namaso
- 27L. Sy
- 5K. Danois
- 22F. Oppegård
- 8N. Ahamada
- 21R. Faivre
- 92C. Akpa
- 46A. Piedfort
- 4A. Tuanzebe
- 23M. Diop
Estac Troyes
4-2-3-1- 9J. Le Douaron
- 8M. Diop
- 17A. Mille
- 29D. Karim
- 11I. Gomis
- 7K. Diawara
- 6A. Monfray
- 4M. Diaz
- 2L. Maronnier
- 5P. Gozzi
- 33P. Beach
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 12:31 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; Estac Troyes have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Rennes(away) | 1-4 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Clermont Foot(home) | 4-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Nice(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 1-3 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Dijon(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Angers(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Lille(away) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 2-6 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Auxerre wins, 2 draws, 0 Estac Troyes wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 8, 2026 | Auxerre 1-1 Estac Troyes | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Auxerre | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Auxerre 2-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 2 |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Estac Troyes 1-2 Auxerre | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 1, 2023 | Auxerre 1-0 Estac Troyes | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 4, 2022 | Estac Troyes 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Auxerre vs Estac Troyes on Aug 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.9 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Estac Troyes score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| Estac Troyes | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 16th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Estac Troyes sit 17th (4 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 16 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 13 | 4 |
A question about Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Estac Troyes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Auxerre the favourite at 43%, against 26% for a draw and 31% for Estac Troyes.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Estac Troyes played?
- Auxerre vs Estac Troyes is played on January 16, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.