Toulouse vs Rennes: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 12Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadium de Toulouse, Toulouse
The Footlab AI model makes Rennes the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1. If Rennes wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Toulouse vs Rennes?
A very open match: only 76 Elo points separate Toulouse (1,991) and Rennes (2,068).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Toulouse vs Rennes
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Toulouse
4-2-3-1- 13J. Russell-Rowe
- 23C. Cásseres
- 8T. Jørgensen
- 37Y. Azizi
- 20C. Tengstedt
- 6A. Vossah
- 12C. Tapé
- 3M. McKenzie
- 22R. Messali
- 5S. Koumbassa
- 16G. Restes
Rennes
4-3-3- 9E. Lepaul
- 11Mousa Tamari
- 90I. Soumaré
- 21V. Rongier
- 28A. Thomasson
- 45M. Camara
- 4C. Cresswell
- 24A. Rouault
- 14B. Reynolds
- 18M. Nagida
- 30B. Samba
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 11:47 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Toulouse have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Rennes have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Monaco(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | PAU(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lorient(away) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Lille(home) | 0-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Laval(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Lyon(away) | 0-4 | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sturm Graz(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Marseille(home) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Toulouse wins, 2 draws, 1 Rennes win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | Rennes 1-0 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Toulouse 2-2 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| May 3, 2025 | Toulouse 2-1 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Rennes 0-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Rennes 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 17, 2023 | Toulouse 0-0 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Toulouse score 1.6 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rennes score 1.7 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toulouse | 1.6 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Rennes | 1.7 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Toulouse sit 15th in Ligue 1 (6 points from 6 matches) and Rennes sit 3rd (13 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 13 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 11 | 6 |
A question about Toulouse vs Rennes?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Toulouse vs Rennes?
- The Footlab AI model makes Rennes the favourite at 43%, against 24% for a draw and 33% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Toulouse vs Rennes played?
- Toulouse vs Rennes is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadium de Toulouse, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.