Avai vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, Florianópolis, Santa Catarina
The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Avai vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Avai (1,837) and Vila Nova (1,873).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Avai have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Vila Nova have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Ponte Preta(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 2-1 | Serie B |
| Aug 11, 2026 | CRB(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Operario-PR(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Ponte Preta(home) | 6-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sport Recife(home) | 0-1 | Serie B |
| Jul 27, 2026 | CRB(away) | 0-2 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Avai win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Vila Nova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Vila Nova 2-0 Avai | Serie B |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Vila Nova 2-2 Avai | Serie B |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Avai 1-1 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Avai 3-0 Vila Nova | Serie B |
| Jul 14, 2024 | Vila Nova 2-1 Avai | Serie B |
| Aug 12, 2023 | Vila Nova 1-1 Avai | Serie B |
How many goals should we expect?
Avai score 1.3 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avai | 1.3 | 1.2 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 1.0 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Avai sit 16th in Serie B (29 points from 24 matches) and Vila Nova sit 3rd (41 points from 24 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Vila Nova | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 35 | 25 | 41 |
| 16 | Avai | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 27 | 30 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Avai vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab model makes Avai the favourite at 41%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is Avai vs Vila Nova played?
- Avai vs Vila Nova is played on September 12, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.