São Bernardo vs Vila Nova: prediction and stats
Serie BRegular Season - 35Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Estádio Primeiro de Maio, São Bernardo do Campo, São Paulo
The Footlab AI model makes São Bernardo the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Vila Nova. The most likely score is 1-1. If São Bernardo wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,404 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
A very open match: only 51 Elo points separate São Bernardo (1,765) and Vila Nova (1,817).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
São Bernardo
3-4-3- 29Pedrinho
- 9Felipe Garcia
- 10Fabrício Daniel
- 26Eduardo
- 2Rodrigo Ferreira
- 6Pará
- 14Lucas Lima
- 35Jemerson
- 97Augusto
- 90Luizão
- 1Alex Alves
Vila Nova
4-2-3-1- 7André Luís
- 10Marquinhos Gabriel
- 99Janderson
- 5João Vieira
- 15Dudu
- 17Everton Galdino
- 4Douglas Mendes
- 22Hayner
- 6Higor
- 23Jonathan Costa
- 1Helton Leite
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 08:15 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, São Bernardo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Vila Nova have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Juventude(away) | 2-2 | Serie B |
| Oct 6, 2026 | Sport Recife(away) | 1-2 | Serie B |
| Oct 2, 2026 | CRB(home) | 3-1 | Serie B |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Novorizontino(away) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Atletico Goianiense(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Nautico Recife(away) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Cuiaba(home) | 0-0 | Serie B |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Botafogo SP(away) | 1-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Londrina(home) | 2-0 | Serie B |
| Sep 18, 2026 | America Mineiro(home) | 1-0 | Serie B |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 São Bernardo wins, 0 draws, 1 Vila Nova win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 6, 2026 | Vila Nova 2-1 São Bernardo | Serie B |
Last archived meeting: Vila Nova vs São Bernardo on Jul 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
São Bernardo score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vila Nova score 1.4 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| São Bernardo | 1.5 | 1.3 | 4 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Vila Nova | 1.4 | 0.7 | 10 | 2/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
São Bernardo sit 12th in Serie B (46 points from 33 matches) and Vila Nova sit 1st (61 points from 33 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vila Nova | 33 | 18 | 7 | 8 | 46 | 31 | 61 |
| 12 | São Bernardo | 33 | 12 | 10 | 11 | 46 | 36 | 46 |
A question about São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for São Bernardo vs Vila Nova?
- The Footlab AI model makes São Bernardo the favourite at 38%, against 30% for a draw and 32% for Vila Nova.
- Where and when is São Bernardo vs Vila Nova played?
- São Bernardo vs Vila Nova is played on October 24, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Estádio Primeiro de Maio, in the Serie B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.