AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Hapoel Beer Sheva. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 103-point Elo edge (2,154 vs 2,050).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 8J. Clasie
- 21D. Kwakman
- 10K. Smit
- 3W. Goes
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 4L. Schouten
- 5M. Chávez
- 28J. De Busser
Hapoel Beer Sheva
4-3-3- 20J. East
- 66I. Zlatanović
- 90A. Ugarriza
- 28N. Yehoshua
- 17A. Forson
- 9Z. Ahmed
- 5Pedro Amador
- 2G. Mizrahi
- 3M. Baltaxa
- 4M. Vítor
- 1O. Marciano
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 02:32 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 10 wins, 4 draws and 1 defeat; Hapoel Beer Sheva have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 0-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Willem II(home) | 1-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 3-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 29, 2026 | GO Ahead Eagles(home) | 5-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ironi Kiryat Shmona(home) | 1-0 | Ligat Ha'al |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(home) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Hapoel Petah Tikva(away) | 2-0 | Ligat Ha'al |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-4 | Ligat Ha'al |
| Sep 2, 2026 | Hapoel Haifa(home) | 2-2 | Ligat Ha'al |
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Hapoel Beer Sheva score 1.3 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1.3 | 1.6 | 6 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 25th in UEFA Europa League (0 points from 1 match) and Hapoel Beer Sheva sit 18th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 25 | AZ Alkmaar | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 62%, against 22% for a draw and 16% for Hapoel Beer Sheva.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.