Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad: prediction and stats
UEFA Europa LeagueLeague Stage - 2Kick-off on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC)Stade Joseph Mariën, Brussels
The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Real Sociedad. The most likely score is 2-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Union St. Gilloise starts as the favourite with a 245-point Elo edge (2,279 vs 2,034).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Union St. Gilloise
3-4-1-2- 9M. Biondic
- 38R. Mofokeng
- 27L. Patris
- 23B. Zeneli
- 11Guilherme Henriques da Silva Carvalho
- 6K. Van de Perre
- 8A. Zorgane
- 29M. Sylla
- 80O. Kričfaluši
- 55N. Havenaar
- 12H. Koffi
Real Sociedad
4-4-2- 10Mikel Oyarzabal
- 9O. Óskarsson
- 21Y. Herrera
- 7Barrenetxea
- 8Beñat Turrientes
- 18Carlos Soler
- 17Sergio Gómez
- 34Luken Beitia
- 6Jon Martín
- 19M. Sarr
- 1Álex Remiro
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:39 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union St. Gilloise have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Real Sociedad have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Antwerp(away) | 2-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Plzen(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Lommel United(home) | 5-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Charleroi(away) | 3-2 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Sep 2, 2026 | St. Truiden(away) | 3-0 | Jupiler Pro League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 0-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 3, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Union St. Gilloise score 2.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Real Sociedad score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union St. Gilloise | 2.9 | 1.3 | 7 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Real Sociedad | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union St. Gilloise sit 5th in UEFA Europa League (3 points from 1 match) and Real Sociedad sit 24th (0 points from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Union St. Gilloise | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | Real Sociedad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
A question about Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad?
- The Footlab AI model makes Union St. Gilloise the favourite at 69%, against 19% for a draw and 12% for Real Sociedad.
- Where and when is Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad played?
- Union St. Gilloise vs Real Sociedad is played on October 15, 2026 at 04:45 PM (UTC) at Stade Joseph Mariën, in the UEFA Europa League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.