AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
AZ Alkmaar starts as the favourite with a 109-point Elo edge (2,147 vs 2,038).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 7 draws and 0 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(away) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | ADO Den Haag(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 2, 2026 | PSV Eindhoven(away) | 4-0 | Super Cup |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Bodo/Glimt(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Willem II(away) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Telstar(home) | 1-2 | Eredivisie |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Olympiakos Piraeus(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AZ Alkmaar win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 NEC Nijmegen win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 5-1 NEC Nijmegen | KNVB Beker |
| Jan 31, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 28, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 29, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Aug 17, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 28, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 2.5 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.7 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 2.5 | 1.1 | 5 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.7 | 1.4 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 1st in Eredivisie (9 points from 3 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 11th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 57%, against 21% for a draw and 22% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.