AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen: prediction and stats
EredivisieRegular Season - 16Kick-off on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)AFAS Stadion, Alkmaar
The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for NEC Nijmegen. The most likely score is 1-1. If AZ Alkmaar wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 4,938 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 8, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
On Elo ratings, AZ Alkmaar has 2,167 points and NEC Nijmegen 2,078.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
AZ Alkmaar
4-2-3-1- 9M. Meerdink
- 6P. Koopmeiners
- 11R. Daal
- 21D. Kwakman
- 17V. Byskov
- 7Weslley Patati
- 4L. Schouten
- 3W. Goes
- 22E. Dijkstra
- 34M. de Wit
- 28J. De Busser
NEC Nijmegen
3-1-4-2- 30B. Linssen
- 14K. Sierhuis
- 6D. Nejašmić
- 20N. Lebreton
- 99Clement Bischoff
- 9T. Chery
- 35Jamiro Monteiro
- 22A. Kaplan
- 4P. Schuurs
- 24Deveron Fonville
- 1G. Crettaz
Computed on November 8, 2026 at 01:28 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, AZ Alkmaar have 8 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats; NEC Nijmegen have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 1-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Ararat-Armenia(away) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Cambuur(away) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 5, 2026 | Omonia Nicosia(home) | 3-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 31, 2026 | Heerenveen(away) | 0-1 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Groningen(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
| Oct 22, 2026 | Dinamo Zagreb(away) | 4-2 | UEFA Europa League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Fortuna Sittard(home) | 2-2 | Eredivisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 AZ Alkmaar wins, 1 draw, 2 NEC Nijmegen wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 19, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 5-1 NEC Nijmegen | KNVB Beker |
| Jan 31, 2026 | AZ Alkmaar 1-3 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Sep 28, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 2-1 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Mar 29, 2025 | NEC Nijmegen 3-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
| Aug 17, 2024 | AZ Alkmaar 1-0 NEC Nijmegen | Eredivisie |
| Apr 28, 2024 | NEC Nijmegen 0-3 AZ Alkmaar | Eredivisie |
Last archived meeting: AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen on Apr 19, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
AZ Alkmaar score 1.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; NEC Nijmegen score 1.4 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ Alkmaar | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| NEC Nijmegen | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
AZ Alkmaar sit 5th in Eredivisie (20 points from 11 matches) and NEC Nijmegen sit 14th (11 points from 11 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | AZ Alkmaar | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | 20 |
| 14 | NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | 11 |
A question about AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen?
- The Footlab AI model makes AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for NEC Nijmegen.
- Where and when is AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen played?
- AZ Alkmaar vs NEC Nijmegen is played on December 13, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at AFAS Stadion, in the Eredivisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.