Where and when is Badajoz vs Marbella played?

Badajoz vs Marbella is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Badajoz vs Marbella: prediction and stats

Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero, Badajoz

Badajoz

Marbella

The Footlab model makes Badajoz the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Badajoz vs Marbella?

Badajoz starts as the favourite with a 194-point Elo edge (1,992 vs 1,799).

Badajoz win63 %

Draw24 %

Marbella win13 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Badajoz have 12 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeats; Marbella have 5, 1 and 9.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Badajoz
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Jun 20, 2026	Cuarte(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 14, 2026	Cuarte(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs
Jun 7, 2026	Moralo(home)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
May 31, 2026	Moralo(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 14
May 24, 2026	Jaraíz(home)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 14

Marbella
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 22, 2026	Teruel(home)	3-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 16, 2026	Alcorcon(away)	2-6	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 10, 2026	Juventud Torremolinos(home)	0-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
May 3, 2026	Eldense(away)	1-3	Primera División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Sabadell(home)	0-1	Primera División RFEF - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Badajoz win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Marbella win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Nov 24, 2019	Badajoz 1-0 Marbella	Primera División RFEF - Group 4

Last archived meeting: Badajoz vs Marbella on Nov 24, 2019

How many goals should we expect?

Badajoz score 2.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Marbella score 1.5 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Badajoz	2.5	0.7	8	6/15	10/15
Marbella	1.5	1.8	3	7/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Badajoz vs Marbella?: The Footlab model makes Badajoz the favourite at 63%, against 24% for a draw and 13% for Marbella.
Where and when is Badajoz vs Marbella played?: Badajoz vs Marbella is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.