Badajoz vs Marbella: prediction and stats
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero, Badajoz
The Footlab AI model makes Badajoz the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Marbella. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.9% of the 1,758 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 9, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Badajoz vs Marbella?
Badajoz starts as the favourite with a 198-point Elo edge (1,923 vs 1,725).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Badajoz vs Marbella
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Badajoz
Not enough data to predict the Badajoz lineup.
Marbella
4-3-3- 19E. Ohemeng
- 11Pablo Moreno
- 7T. Awudu
- 36D. Revuelta
- 35I. Gonzalez
- 24D. Selma
- 22J. Rodriguez
- 23Alberto Escassi
- 15Gabri Clemente
- 4Adri Castellano
- 1Manu García
Computed on October 9, 2026 at 01:53 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Badajoz have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Marbella have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Sevilla Atletico(away) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Las Palmas II(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Real Betis II(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Xerez(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Tenerife II(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Betis II(home) | 0-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Puente Genil(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atlético Central(home) | 4-1 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sevilla Atletico(away) | 0-3 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Sanluqueño(home) | 2-2 | Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 1 Badajoz win, 0 draws, 0 Marbella wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 24, 2019 | Badajoz 1-0 Marbella | Primera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Badajoz score 1.9 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Marbella score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badajoz | 1.9 | 0.6 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Marbella | 1.4 | 1.9 | 3 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Badajoz sit 7th in Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 (8 points from 5 matches) and Marbella sit 14th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Badajoz | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 8 |
| 14 | Marbella | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 5 |
A question about Badajoz vs Marbella?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Badajoz vs Marbella?
- The Footlab AI model makes Badajoz the favourite at 65%, against 23% for a draw and 12% for Marbella.
- Where and when is Badajoz vs Marbella played?
- Badajoz vs Marbella is played on October 11, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Nuevo Vivero, in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.9% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Oct 11, 2026Linares DeportivovsAntoniano
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- Oct 11, 2026Ciudad de LucenavsDon Benito
- Oct 11, 2026SanluqueñovsRecreativo Huelva
- Oct 11, 2026Mijas Las LagunasvsSevilla Atletico
- Oct 11, 2026EsteponavsAtlético Central