Badalona vs Vilanova: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 5Group 5 - 6Kick-off on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadi Municipal de Badalona, Badalona
The Footlab model makes Badalona the favourite at 49%, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Vilanova. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Badalona vs Vilanova?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Badalona (1,802) and Vilanova (1,788).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Badalona have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Vilanova have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Cornellà(home) | 3-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 31, 2026 | Cornellà(away) | 1-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 24, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(home) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 17, 2026 | L'Hospitalet(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 10, 2026 | Vic(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 12, 2026 | Manresa(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 24, 2026 | Cornellà(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 17, 2026 | Cornellà(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 10, 2026 | Lleida Esportiu(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| May 3, 2026 | Can Vidalet(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Badalona win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Vilanova win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | Badalona 3-0 Vilanova | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
| Nov 8, 2025 | Vilanova 2-1 Badalona | Tercera División RFEF - Group 5 |
How many goals should we expect?
Badalona score 1.2 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Vilanova score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 36% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Badalona | 1.2 | 1.2 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Vilanova | 1.0 | 1.1 | 3 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Vilanova | 34 | 15 | 11 | 9 | 38 | 27 | 56 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Badalona vs Vilanova?
- The Footlab model makes Badalona the favourite at 49%, against 30% for a draw and 21% for Vilanova.
- Where and when is Badalona vs Vilanova played?
- Badalona vs Vilanova is played on October 11, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadi Municipal de Badalona, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 5.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 36% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.