Bærum vs Ullern: prediction and stats
3. Division - Girone 1Regular Season - 24Kick-off on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC)AJ Arena, Sandvika
The Footlab model makes Bærum the favourite at 76%, against 12% for a draw and 12% for Ullern. The most likely score is 3-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bærum vs Ullern?
Bærum starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (1,749 vs 1,547).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bærum have 9 wins, 1 draws and 5 defeats; Ullern have 4, 2 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Mjondalen(home) | 4-0 | NM Cupen |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SF Grei(away) | 7-1 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 10, 2026 | KFUM II(home) | 5-1 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Heming(away) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Vålerenga II(home) | 6-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Union Carl Berner(home) | 4-1 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Gamle Oslo(home) | 2-5 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Frigg(away) | 2-2 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Heming(home) | 1-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Asker(away) | 2-3 | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bærum win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Ullern win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Ullern 0-3 Bærum | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Bærum 4-2 Ullern | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Apr 21, 2025 | Ullern 1-2 Bærum | 3. Division - Girone 1 |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Ullern 1-1 Bærum | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Jun 8, 2024 | Bærum 2-2 Ullern | 3. Division - Girone 3 |
| Apr 11, 2024 | Ullern 0-2 Bærum | NM Cupen |
How many goals should we expect?
Bærum score 3.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Ullern score 1.9 and concede 2.5. The model gives a 90% probability of over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bærum | 3.5 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
| Ullern | 1.9 | 2.5 | 0 | 14/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bærum sit 3rd in 3. Division - Girone 1 (31 points from 16 matches) and Ullern sit 11th (14 points from 16 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Bærum | 16 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 56 | 29 | 31 |
| 11 | Ullern | 16 | 4 | 2 | 10 | 29 | 41 | 14 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bærum vs Ullern?
- The Footlab model makes Bærum the favourite at 76%, against 12% for a draw and 12% for Ullern.
- Where and when is Bærum vs Ullern played?
- Bærum vs Ullern is played on October 17, 2026 at 12:00 PM (UTC) at AJ Arena, in the 3. Division - Girone 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 90% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.