Bahia vs Vitoria: prediction and stats
Baiano - 1Regular Season - 5Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC)Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Vitoria. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bahia wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,824 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 29, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bahia vs Vitoria?
On Elo ratings, Bahia has 1,827 points and Vitoria 1,755.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bahia vs Vitoria
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bahia
5-3-2- 16Erick Pulga
- 9A. Véliz
- 11Rodrigo Nestor
- 5N. Acevedo
- 6Jean Lucas
- 33David Duarte
- 46Luciano Juba
- 99C. Olivera
- 44Marcos Victor
- 3Marco Moreno
- 1Ronaldo
Vitoria
4-2-3-1- 91Rene
- 95Caíque
- 33Erick
- 10Matheuzinho
- 6E. Martínez
- 12D. Tarzia
- 36Luan Cândido
- 98Mateusinho
- 83Jamerson
- 2E. Brítez
- 1Lucas Arcanjo
Computed on October 29, 2026 at 11:15 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bahia have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Vitoria have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 29, 2026 | Sao Paulo(home) | 3-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Santos(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Flamengo(home) | 0-3 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Mirassol(home) | 1-0 | Serie A |
| Oct 9, 2026 | Palmeiras(away) | 0-1 | Serie A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 24, 2026 | Atletico Paranaense(home) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 19, 2026 | Corinthians(away) | 1-1 | Serie A |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Sao Paulo(away) | 1-2 | Serie A |
| Oct 7, 2026 | Chapecoense-sc(home) | 4-0 | Serie A |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Cruzeiro(home) | 1-3 | Serie A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bahia wins, 1 draw, 1 Vitoria win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Vitoria 0-2 Bahia | Serie A |
| Mar 11, 2026 | Bahia 1-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Bahia 2-1 Vitoria | Baiano - 1 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | Vitoria 0-1 Bahia | Baiano - 1 |
| Oct 17, 2025 | Vitoria 2-1 Bahia | Serie A |
| May 18, 2025 | Bahia 2-1 Vitoria | Serie A |
How many goals should we expect?
Bahia score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Vitoria score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bahia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Vitoria | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bahia sit 1st in Baiano - 1 (23 points from 9 matches) and Vitoria sit 2nd (16 points from 9 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2026 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bahia | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 26 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Vitoria | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 4 | 16 |
A question about Bahia vs Vitoria?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bahia vs Vitoria?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bahia the favourite at 56%, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Vitoria.
- Where and when is Bahia vs Vitoria played?
- Bahia vs Vitoria is played on January 23, 2027 at 09:00 PM (UTC) at Arena Fonte Nova, in the Baiano - 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.