Baltika vs Akhmat: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 16Kick-off on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Rostec Arena, Kaliningrad
The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Akhmat. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Baltika vs Akhmat?
A very open match: only 58 Elo points separate Baltika (1,974) and Akhmat (1,916).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Baltika have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Akhmat have 3, 7 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Rostov(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fakel(home) | 2-1 | Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Fakel(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Baltika win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Akhmat win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 23, 2026 | Akhmat 1-1 Baltika | Premier League |
| Feb 18, 2026 | Baltika 2-2 Akhmat | Friendlies Clubs |
| Nov 2, 2025 | Baltika 2-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
| Apr 13, 2024 | Akhmat 1-7 Baltika | Premier League |
| Oct 31, 2023 | Baltika 4-1 Akhmat | Cup |
| Sep 23, 2023 | Baltika 1-0 Akhmat | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Baltika score 1.0 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Akhmat score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltika | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Akhmat | 1.1 | 1.2 | 2 | 10/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Baltika sit 6th in Premier League (7 points from 5 matches) and Akhmat sit 10th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 10 | Akhmat | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Baltika vs Akhmat?
- The Footlab model makes Baltika the favourite at 46%, against 29% for a draw and 24% for Akhmat.
- Where and when is Baltika vs Akhmat played?
- Baltika vs Akhmat is played on November 28, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Rostec Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.