Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 27Kick-off on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Lukoil Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Lokomotiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
Spartak Moscow starts as the favourite with a 127-point Elo edge (2,100 vs 1,973).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spartak Moscow have 8 wins, 5 draws and 2 defeats; Lokomotiv have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Zenit(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Rubin(away) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Baltika(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | FC Krasnodar(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | FC Orenburg(home) | 5-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Spartak Moscow win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Lokomotiv win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 11, 2026 | Lokomotiv 2-0 Spartak Moscow | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 5, 2026 | Spartak Moscow 2-1 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Nov 26, 2025 | Lokomotiv 2-3 Spartak Moscow | Cup |
| Nov 6, 2025 | Spartak Moscow 3-1 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Lokomotiv 4-2 Spartak Moscow | Premier League |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Spartak Moscow 5-2 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow on Jul 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Spartak Moscow score 1.6 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow | 1.6 | 0.9 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spartak Moscow sit 2nd in Premier League (12 points from 5 matches) and Lokomotiv sit 14th (3 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 12 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv?
- The Footlab model makes Spartak Moscow the favourite at 60%, against 23% for a draw and 17% for Lokomotiv.
- Where and when is Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv played?
- Spartak Moscow vs Lokomotiv is played on May 8, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Lukoil Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.