Lokomotiv vs Baltika: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 28Kick-off on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)RZD Arena, Moskva
The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Baltika. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Lokomotiv (1,973) and Baltika (1,975).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Baltika have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(away) | 2-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2026 | FC Rostov(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
| Aug 14, 2026 | FC Orenburg(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Akron(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | CSKA Moscow(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Rubin(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Dinamo Makhachkala(home) | 1-1 | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Spartak Moscow(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Krylia Sovetov(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Zenit(away) | 0-1 | Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Lokomotiv win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Baltika win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Lokomotiv 1-0 Baltika | Premier League |
| Oct 23, 2025 | Baltika 1-2 Lokomotiv | Cup |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Baltika 1-1 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
| Aug 13, 2025 | Lokomotiv 2-0 Baltika | Cup |
| Jul 6, 2024 | Lokomotiv 4-1 Baltika | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 25, 2024 | Baltika 1-3 Lokomotiv | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Baltika score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv | 1.1 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Baltika | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv sit 14th in Premier League (3 points from 5 matches) and Baltika sit 6th (7 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Baltika | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 14 | Lokomotiv | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv vs Baltika?
- The Footlab model makes Lokomotiv the favourite at 41%, against 29% for a draw and 30% for Baltika.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv vs Baltika played?
- Lokomotiv vs Baltika is played on May 15, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at RZD Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.