Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, Barakaldo
The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Arenas Getxo. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
A very open match: only 57 Elo points separate Barakaldo (1,956) and Arenas Getxo (1,899).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barakaldo have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Arenas Getxo have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 14, 2026 | Portugalete(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 4-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 9, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 2-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 1, 2026 | Tenerife(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Laredo(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Eibar(away) | 0-5 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 23, 2026 | Zamora(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Real Madrid II(away) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 8, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Barakaldo win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Arenas Getxo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 1, 2026 | Arenas Getxo 2-1 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 12, 2025 | Barakaldo 2-1 Arenas Getxo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Aug 9, 2025 | Barakaldo 0-0 Arenas Getxo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 21, 2024 | Barakaldo 1-0 Arenas Getxo | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Sep 9, 2023 | Arenas Getxo 1-1 Barakaldo | Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 |
| Aug 5, 2023 | Arenas Getxo 1-3 Barakaldo | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Arenas Getxo vs Barakaldo on Mar 1, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Barakaldo score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Arenas Getxo score 1.2 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barakaldo | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Arenas Getxo | 1.2 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barakaldo sit 7th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (58 points from 38 matches) and Arenas Getxo sit 11th (52 points from 38 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Barakaldo | 38 | 15 | 13 | 10 | 51 | 38 | 58 |
| 11 | Arenas Getxo | 38 | 15 | 7 | 16 | 46 | 55 | 52 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo?
- The Footlab model makes Barakaldo the favourite at 62%, against 24% for a draw and 14% for Arenas Getxo.
- Where and when is Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo played?
- Barakaldo vs Arenas Getxo is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Lasesarre, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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