Where and when is Ponferradina vs Mirandes played?

Ponferradina vs Mirandes is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Ponferradina vs Mirandes: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada

Ponferradina

Mirandes

The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mirandes. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Ponferradina vs Mirandes?

A very open match: only 91 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,968) and Mirandes (1,877).

Ponferradina win51 %

Draw27 %

Mirandes win22 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Mirandes have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Ponferradina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Marino de Luanco(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Oviedo(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 20, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-4	Primera División RFEF - Play Offs

Mirandes
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	UD Logroñés(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 19, 2026	La Calzada(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Real Madrid II(away)	0-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 13, 2026	Atlético Madrid II(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Osasuna II(away)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Ponferradina win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Mirandes win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 26, 2023	Ponferradina 0-0 Mirandes	Segunda División
Dec 17, 2022	Mirandes 2-1 Ponferradina	Segunda División
Mar 27, 2022	Mirandes 3-1 Ponferradina	Segunda División
Dec 5, 2021	Ponferradina 2-1 Mirandes	Segunda División
Feb 19, 2021	Ponferradina 1-0 Mirandes	Segunda División
Oct 3, 2020	Mirandes 0-1 Ponferradina	Segunda División

Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Mirandes on Mar 26, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Mirandes score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Ponferradina	1.1	1.3	7	6/15	7/15
Mirandes	1.3	1.5	3	9/15	9/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43	33	60

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Mirandes?: The Footlab model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 51%, against 27% for a draw and 22% for Mirandes.
Where and when is Ponferradina vs Mirandes played?: Ponferradina vs Mirandes is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.