Where and when is Real Unión vs UD Ourense played?

Real Unión vs UD Ourense is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gal, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Real Unión vs UD Ourense: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Gal, Irún

Real Unión

UD Ourense

The Footlab model makes Real Unión the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for UD Ourense. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Unión vs UD Ourense?

A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate Real Unión (1,973) and UD Ourense (1,976).

Real Unión win44 %

Draw28 %

UD Ourense win28 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Unión have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; UD Ourense have 8, 4 and 3.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Unión
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 8, 2026	Eibar(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	PAU(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 1, 2026	Alfaro(home)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 26, 2026	Real Zaragoza II(away)	1-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2
Apr 18, 2026	Amorebieta(home)	3-3	Segunda División RFEF - Group 2

UD Ourense
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 31, 2026	Conquense(away)	2-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 24, 2026	Conquense(home)	1-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 16, 2026	Reddis(home)	2-1	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 9, 2026	Reddis(away)	0-0	Segunda División RFEF - Play-offs
May 3, 2026	Atlético Astorga(home)	1-1	Segunda División RFEF - Group 1

How many goals should we expect?

Real Unión score 2.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; UD Ourense score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Real Unión	2.3	1.5	4	10/15	13/15
UD Ourense	1.5	1.0	6	7/15	8/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Unión vs UD Ourense?: The Footlab model makes Real Unión the favourite at 44%, against 28% for a draw and 28% for UD Ourense.
Where and when is Real Unión vs UD Ourense played?: Real Unión vs UD Ourense is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Gal, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.