Where and when is Real Avilés vs Lugo played?

Real Avilés vs Lugo is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Real Avilés vs Lugo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 6Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés

Real Avilés

Lugo

The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Lugo. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Avilés vs Lugo?

A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Real Avilés (1,870) and Lugo (1,885).

Real Avilés win39 %

Draw28 %

Lugo win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Lugo have 5, 4 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Avilés
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Sporting Gijón II(home)	4-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Mosconia(away)	2-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 13, 2026	Racing Ferrol(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Racing Santander II(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 5, 2026	Cultural Leonesa(away)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs

Lugo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Ourense CF(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Coruxo(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 3 meetings: 1 Real Avilés win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Lugo win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Jan 25, 2026	Real Avilés 1-2 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 6, 2025	Lugo 0-0 Real Avilés	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 19, 2023	Real Avilés 1-0 Lugo	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Real Avilés vs Lugo on Jan 25, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Avilés score 1.5 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Real Avilés	1.5	1.5	2	12/15	8/15
Lugo	0.9	1.3	5	6/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Avilés sit 14th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (44 points from 38 matches) and Lugo sit 9th (53 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36	40	53
14	Real Avilés	38	11	11	16	55	67	44

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Lugo?: The Footlab model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Lugo.
Where and when is Real Avilés vs Lugo played?: Real Avilés vs Lugo is played on October 4, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.