Match

Mérida AD vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 37Kick-off on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Romano, Mérida

Mérida ADBarakaldo

The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Mérida AD wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,466 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Mérida AD vs Barakaldo?

A very open match: only 39 Elo points separate Mérida AD (1,882) and Barakaldo (1,921).

48%27%25%
Mérida AD winDrawBarakaldo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Mérida AD vs Barakaldo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Mérida AD

4-3-3
  1. 21Raúl Beneit
  2. 19D. Sandoval
  3. 11S. El Ftouhi
  1. 6Jota
  2. 23Geovanny Almeida
  3. 8Martín Solar
  1. 2Alejandro Agustín
  2. 4Gonzalez Nacho
  3. 16Fito
  4. 5Hugo Sanz
  1. 1A. Csenterics

Barakaldo

4-3-3
  1. 19Ángel Troncho
  2. 20Okolo
  3. 11Carlos Mattheus
  1. 8Julen Huidobro
  2. 15I. Jimenez
  3. 21X. Fernandez
  1. 17Pablo Trigueros
  2. 3Ander Zoilo
  3. 5Aritz Muguruza
  4. 4O. Marotias
  1. 13Gaizka Campos

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 02:51 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Mérida AD have 5 wins, 1 draw and 9 defeats; Barakaldo have 4, 5 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Mérida AD
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 11, 2026Pontevedra(away)2-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 4, 2026Cacereño(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026UD Logroñés(home)3-5Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 12, 2026Mirandes(home)3-4Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Real Avilés(home)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 19, 2026Racing Ferrol(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 11, 2026Extremadura 1924(home)1-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Mérida AD win, 0 draws, 1 Barakaldo win.

DateScoreCompetition
May 9, 2026Barakaldo 2-0 Mérida ADPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 30, 2025Mérida AD 1-0 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Barakaldo vs Mérida AD on May 9, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Mérida AD score 1.1 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Mérida AD1.11.926/157/15
Barakaldo1.11.246/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Mérida AD sit 12th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (9 points from 7 matches) and Barakaldo sit 17th (6 points from 7 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Mérida AD730411129
17Barakaldo71336106

A question about Mérida AD vs Barakaldo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

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Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Mérida AD vs Barakaldo?
The Footlab AI model makes Mérida AD the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Barakaldo.
Where and when is Mérida AD vs Barakaldo played?
Mérida AD vs Barakaldo is played on May 16, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Romano, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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