Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven: prediction and stats
UEFA Champions LeagueLeague Stage - 5Kick-off on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for PSV Eindhoven. The most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
On Elo ratings, Real Madrid has 2,282 points and PSV Eindhoven 2,224.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1- 10Kylian Mbappé
- 8F. Valverde
- 5J. Bellingham
- 15A. Güler
- 14A. Tchouaméni
- 7Vinícius Júnior
- 16I. Konaté
- 12T. Alexander-Arnold
- 4D. Huijsen
- 17Marc Cucurella
- 1T. Courtois
PSV Eindhoven
4-2-3-1- 9R. Pepi
- 20G. Til
- 24K. Sano
- 7R. van Bommel
- 10P. Wanner
- 5I. Perišić
- 4A. Obispo
- 8S. Dest
- 17Mauro Júnior
- 2L. Geertruida
- 32M. Kovář
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 04:50 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Madrid have 12 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats; PSV Eindhoven have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 1-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Elche(away) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 4-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Inter(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Heerenveen(home) | 2-0 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Twente(away) | 2-3 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Sparta Rotterdam(home) | 4-1 | Eredivisie |
| Sep 10, 2026 | Shakhtar Donetsk(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Ajax(away) | 3-1 | Eredivisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Real Madrid score 2.5 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; PSV Eindhoven score 3.1 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 1.0 | 4 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| PSV Eindhoven | 3.1 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Real Madrid sit 14th in UEFA Champions League (3 points from 1 match) and PSV Eindhoven sit 19th (1 point from 1 match).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Real Madrid | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 19 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
A question about Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven?
- The Footlab AI model makes Real Madrid the favourite at 67%, against 19% for a draw and 14% for PSV Eindhoven.
- Where and when is Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven played?
- Real Madrid vs PSV Eindhoven is played on November 24, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the UEFA Champions League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.