Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town: prediction and stats
EFL TrophyGroup North - 7Kick-off on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Oakwell, Barnsley, South Yorkshire
The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Fleetwood Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town?
A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Barnsley (1,792) and Fleetwood Town (1,769).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Barnsley have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Fleetwood Town have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Doncaster(away) | 0-0 | League One |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bromley(home) | 0-1 | League One |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Chesterfield(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chesterfield(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Hartlepool(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Barnsley win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Fleetwood Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 13, 2025 | Barnsley 2-2 Fleetwood Town | League Cup |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Fleetwood Town 1-2 Barnsley | League One |
| Oct 28, 2023 | Barnsley 2-2 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Barnsley 2-1 Fleetwood Town | League One |
| Oct 1, 2022 | Fleetwood Town 0-1 Barnsley | League One |
| Apr 13, 2019 | Barnsley 4-2 Fleetwood Town | League One |
Last archived meeting: Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town on Aug 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Barnsley score 1.1 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Fleetwood Town score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Barnsley | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Fleetwood Town | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Barnsley sit 2nd in EFL Trophy (3 points from 3 matches) and Fleetwood Town sit 2nd (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Barnsley | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 2 | Fleetwood Town | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town?
- The Footlab model makes Barnsley the favourite at 49%, against 23% for a draw and 28% for Fleetwood Town.
- Where and when is Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town played?
- Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town is played on September 2, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Oakwell, in the EFL Trophy.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.