GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Holywell: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Essity Stadium, Y Fflint / Flint, Flintshire
The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Holywell. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Holywell?
GAP Connah S Quay FC starts as the favourite with a 233-point Elo edge (1,945 vs 1,712).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, GAP Connah S Quay FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Holywell have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 6-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell(away) | 3-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(home) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | Ballkani(away) | 2-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Llandudno(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 1-6 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 GAP Connah S Quay FC win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Holywell win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 7, 2026 | Holywell 1-3 GAP Connah S Quay FC | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2022 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 1-0 Holywell | League Cup |
| Oct 26, 2021 | GAP Connah S Quay FC 4-0 Holywell | League Cup |
Last archived meeting: Holywell vs GAP Connah S Quay FC on Aug 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
GAP Connah S Quay FC score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Holywell score 2.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAP Connah S Quay FC | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
| Holywell | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
GAP Connah S Quay FC sit 4th in Premier League (9 points from 4 matches) and Holywell sit 15th (0 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 3 | 9 |
| 15 | Holywell | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Holywell?
- The Footlab model makes GAP Connah S Quay FC the favourite at 63%, against 21% for a draw and 16% for Holywell.
- Where and when is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Holywell played?
- GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Holywell is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Essity Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.