Match

Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union BerlinHamburger SV

The Footlab AI model makes Union Berlin the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1. If Union Berlin wins, the most likely score is 2-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,460 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?

On Elo ratings, Union Berlin has 2,032 points and Hamburger SV 2,081.

51%22%27%
Union Berlin winDrawHamburger SV win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Union Berlin

4-1-4-1
  1. 29E. Latte Lath
  1. 8R. Khedira
  2. 20M. Aebischer
  3. 11Jeong Woo-Yeong
  4. 13A. Schäfer
  5. 30K. Imeri
  1. 15T. Rothe
  2. 2F. Uduokhai
  3. 19J. Haberer
  4. 4Z. Van Den Bosch
  1. 1F. Rønnow

Hamburger SV

3-4-2-1
  1. 15Y. Poulsen
  1. 21N. Remberg
  2. 6A. Sambi Lokonga
  3. 3D. Møller Wolfe
  4. 20Fábio Vieira
  5. 5M. Adeline
  6. 37L. Lemke
  1. 24N. Capaldo
  2. 33S. Bornauw
  3. 17W. Omari
  1. 1Daniel Heuer Fernandes

Computed on October 16, 2026 at 09:30 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Berlin have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Hamburger SV have 7, 2 and 6.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Union Berlin
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 2026SV Elversberg(home)1-0Bundesliga
Sep 18, 2026Bayern München(away)0-7Bundesliga
Sep 11, 2026FC Schalke 04(home)1-3Bundesliga
Sep 5, 2026Bayer Leverkusen(away)0-4Bundesliga
Aug 29, 2026Eintracht Frankfurt(home)3-3Bundesliga
Hamburger SV
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 10, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)3-2Bundesliga
Oct 4, 2026FC Copenhagen(home)2-0Friendlies Clubs
Sep 19, 20261. FC Köln(home)2-1Bundesliga
Sep 13, 2026RB Leipzig(away)0-5Bundesliga
Sep 6, 2026FSV Mainz 05(home)0-5Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Union Berlin win, 2 draws, 1 Hamburger SV win.

DateScoreCompetition
Feb 14, 2026Hamburger SV 3-2 Union BerlinBundesliga
Sep 28, 2025Union Berlin 0-0 Hamburger SVBundesliga
Apr 28, 2019Union Berlin 2-0 Hamburger SV2. Bundesliga
Nov 26, 2018Hamburger SV 2-2 Union Berlin2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin on Feb 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Union Berlin score 2.1 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.6 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Union Berlin2.12.5111/1511/15
Hamburger SV1.61.9210/1512/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Union Berlin sit 16th in Bundesliga (4 points from 5 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 12th (6 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
12Hamburger SV52035156
16Union Berlin51135174

A question about Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?
The Footlab AI model makes Union Berlin the favourite at 51%, against 22% for a draw and 27% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV played?
Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Union Berlin and Hamburger SV

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