Where and when is Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV played?

Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC)Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin

Union Berlin

Hamburger SV

The Footlab model makes Union Berlin the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Hamburger SV. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?

A very open match: only 23 Elo points separate Union Berlin (2,034) and Hamburger SV (2,057).

Union Berlin win53 %

Draw22 %

Hamburger SV win25 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Berlin have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Hamburger SV have 4, 4 and 7.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Union Berlin
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Eintracht Braunschweig(away)	4-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Ipswich(home)	2-4	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 9, 2026	Aris(home)	3-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 2, 2026	Cagliari(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Dynamo Dresden(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs

Hamburger SV
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 15, 2026	Toulouse(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Lille(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Everton(home)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 18, 2026	Rapid Vienna(away)	2-3	Friendlies Clubs
May 16, 2026	Bayer Leverkusen(away)	1-1	Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Union Berlin win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Hamburger SV win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 14, 2026	Hamburger SV 3-2 Union Berlin	Bundesliga
Sep 28, 2025	Union Berlin 0-0 Hamburger SV	Bundesliga
Apr 28, 2019	Union Berlin 2-0 Hamburger SV	2. Bundesliga
Nov 26, 2018	Hamburger SV 2-2 Union Berlin	2. Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: Hamburger SV vs Union Berlin on Feb 14, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Union Berlin score 2.5 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Hamburger SV score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Union Berlin	2.5	1.9	1	13/15	12/15
Hamburger SV	1.4	1.9	0	13/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Union Berlin sit 11th in Bundesliga (39 points from 34 matches) and Hamburger SV sit 13th (38 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
11	Union Berlin	34	10	9	15	44	58	39
13	Hamburger SV	34	9	11	14	40	54	38

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV?: The Footlab model makes Union Berlin the favourite at 53%, against 22% for a draw and 25% for Hamburger SV.
Where and when is Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV played?: Union Berlin vs Hamburger SV is played on December 5, 2026 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.