Match

Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen: prediction and stats

BundesligaMatchday 16Kick-off on January 13, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC)Allianz Arena, München

Bayern MünchenBayer Leverkusen

The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Bayer Leverkusen. The most likely score is 3-1.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,487 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Nov 12, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Bayern München starts as the favourite with a 265-point Elo edge (2,524 vs 2,259).

77%14%9%
Bayern München winDrawBayer Leverkusen win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Bayern München

4-2-3-1
  1. 9H. Kane
  1. 17M. Olise
  2. 6J. Kimmich
  3. 45A. Pavlović
  4. 42L. Karl
  5. 11N. Brown
  1. 27K. Laimer
  2. 2D. Upamecano
  3. 44J. Stanišić
  4. 4J. Tah
  1. 1M. Neuer

Bayer Leverkusen

4-2-3-1
  1. 14P. Schick
  1. 24Aleix García
  2. 30I. Maza
  3. 6E. Fernández
  4. 9Afonso Moreira
  5. 10M. Tillman
  1. 2F. Medina
  2. 12E. Tapsoba
  3. 3Miguel Gutiérrez
  4. 4J. Quansah
  1. 1M. Flekken

Computed on November 12, 2026 at 05:52 AM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayern München have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Bayer Leverkusen have 10, 1 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayern München
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 7, 2026FSV Mainz 05(away)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 3, 2026Atletico Madrid(away)2-0UEFA Champions League
Oct 31, 2026Borussia Dortmund(home)2-2Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Magdeburg(home)6-1DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 2026SC Freiburg(away)3-1Bundesliga
Bayer Leverkusen
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Nov 8, 20261. FC Köln(away)2-1Bundesliga
Nov 5, 2026Marseille(home)0-1UEFA Europa League
Oct 31, 2026VfB Stuttgart(home)2-4Bundesliga
Oct 28, 20261. FC Nürnberg(home)5-2DFB Pokal
Oct 25, 20261899 Hoffenheim(away)0-3Bundesliga

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Bayern München wins, 2 draws, 0 Bayer Leverkusen wins.

DateScoreCompetition
Apr 22, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern MünchenDFB Pokal
Mar 14, 2026Bayer Leverkusen 1-1 Bayern MünchenBundesliga
Nov 1, 2025Bayern München 3-0 Bayer LeverkusenBundesliga
Mar 11, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Bayern MünchenUEFA Champions League
Mar 5, 2025Bayern München 3-0 Bayer LeverkusenUEFA Champions League
Feb 15, 2025Bayer Leverkusen 0-0 Bayern MünchenBundesliga

Last archived meeting: Bayer Leverkusen vs Bayern München on Apr 22, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Bayern München score 3.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Bayer Leverkusen score 2.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 78% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Bayern München3.41.1411/1513/15
Bayer Leverkusen2.51.367/1511/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Bayern München sit 1st in Bundesliga (21 points from 9 matches) and Bayer Leverkusen sit 5th (16 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Bayern München963029921
5Bayer Leverkusen9513201716

A question about Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen?
The Footlab AI model makes Bayern München the favourite at 77%, against 14% for a draw and 9% for Bayer Leverkusen.
Where and when is Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
Bayern München vs Bayer Leverkusen is played on January 13, 2027 at 07:30 PM (UTC) at Allianz Arena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 78% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Bayern München and Bayer Leverkusen