Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04 played?

Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04 is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04: prediction and stats

BundesligaRegular Season - 17Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC)BayArena, Leverkusen

Bayer Leverkusen

FC Schalke 04

The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for FC Schalke 04. The most likely score is 2-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04?

Bayer Leverkusen starts as the favourite with a 222-point Elo edge (2,284 vs 2,062).

Bayer Leverkusen win63 %

Draw20 %

FC Schalke 04 win17 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bayer Leverkusen have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; FC Schalke 04 have 11, 0 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Bayer Leverkusen
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	SV Wehen(away)	4-0	DFB Pokal
Aug 15, 2026	Newcastle(away)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 12, 2026	Nottingham Forest(away)	1-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Sevilla(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Rot-Weiß Essen(home)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs

FC Schalke 04
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 24, 2026	Hallescher FC(away)	5-2	DFB Pokal
Aug 16, 2026	Real Madrid(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Atalanta(home)	0-3	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Hessen Kassel(away)	5-0	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 25, 2026	Fagiano Okayama(home)	3-1	Friendlies Clubs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Bayer Leverkusen win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 FC Schalke 04 win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Apr 1, 2023	FC Schalke 04 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Oct 8, 2022	Bayer Leverkusen 4-0 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Apr 3, 2021	Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga
Dec 6, 2020	FC Schalke 04 0-3 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Jun 14, 2020	FC Schalke 04 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen	Bundesliga
Dec 7, 2019	Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 FC Schalke 04	Bundesliga

Last archived meeting: FC Schalke 04 vs Bayer Leverkusen on Apr 1, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; FC Schalke 04 score 2.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Bayer Leverkusen	2.4	1.0	5	9/15	12/15
FC Schalke 04	2.1	1.3	5	7/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
6	Bayer Leverkusen	34	17	8	9	68	47	59

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04?: The Footlab model makes Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 63%, against 20% for a draw and 17% for FC Schalke 04.
Where and when is Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04 played?: Bayer Leverkusen vs FC Schalke 04 is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:30 PM (UTC) at BayArena, in the Bundesliga.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.