Belgium vs Türkiye: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Nagyerdei Stadion, Debrecen
The Footlab model makes Belgium the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Türkiye. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Belgium vs Türkiye?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Belgium (1,770) and Türkiye (1,688).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Belgium have 9 wins, 6 draws and 0 defeats; Türkiye have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 27, 2026 | New Zealand(away) | 5-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Iran(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Egypt(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Tunisia(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies |
| Jun 2, 2026 | Croatia(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | USA(home) | 3-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 20, 2026 | Paraguay(home) | 0-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Australia(away) | 0-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 6, 2026 | Venezuela(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 1, 2026 | FYR Macedonia(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Belgium score 3.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Türkiye score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 3.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Türkiye | 2.0 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Belgium vs Türkiye?
- The Footlab model makes Belgium the favourite at 58%, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Türkiye.
- Where and when is Belgium vs Türkiye played?
- Belgium vs Türkiye is played on October 2, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Nagyerdei Stadion, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 54% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.