Spain vs Czechia: prediction and stats
UEFA Nations League3Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia
The Footlab model makes Spain the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Czechia. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spain vs Czechia?
Spain is a heavy favourite: 1,917 Elo points against 1,594 — a 323-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spain have 10 wins, 5 draws and 0 defeats; Czechia have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2026 | Argentina(home) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 27, 2026 | Uruguay(away) | 1-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Saudi Arabia(home) | 4-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 15, 2026 | Cape Verde Islands(home) | 0-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 9, 2026 | Peru(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Mexico(home) | 0-3 | World Cup |
| Jun 18, 2026 | South Africa(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 12, 2026 | South Korea(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Guatemala(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| May 31, 2026 | Kosovo(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Spain win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Czechia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jun 12, 2022 | Spain 2-0 Czechia | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Czechia 2-2 Spain | UEFA Nations League |
| Jun 13, 2016 | Spain 1-0 Czechia | Euro Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Spain score 2.4 and concede 0.4 goals per match over their last 15; Czechia score 1.6 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain | 2.4 | 0.4 | 11 | 4/15 | 9/15 |
| Czechia | 1.6 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spain vs Czechia?
- The Footlab model makes Spain the favourite at 71%, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Czechia.
- Where and when is Spain vs Czechia played?
- Spain vs Czechia is played on October 3, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, in the UEFA Nations League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.